The Iraq case is evidence of the often-heard saying that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Because in the end, it’s not what one has in mind that matters but the outcome that counts.
The country found itself at the epicentre of two Western-led military operations.
In 1991, it came under the crosshairs of an international coalition when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and in 2003, as part of the war on terror, the Iraqi dictator was overthrown.
What was publicly stated, at least, was that the aim of these operations was to democratise Iraq, so it could later serve as an example for other Middle Eastern countries.
At the same time, however, it was an open secret that what the US sought was to contain Iran’s influence.
Two goals that were never achieved.
On one hand, Iraq is far from being a model democracy, and on the other hand, in recent years, it has fallen into Iran’s embrace, as Tehran’s influence over Baghdad has dramatically increased. Today, it’s no secret that the Iraqi government is largely controlled by the Iranian regime.
And this wasn’t difficult to accomplish, despite the two countries being engaged in a bloody war in the 1980s with millions dead.
One would expect great suspicion between them. However, Saddam Hussein’s downfall led to a significant empowerment of the Shiite element, something that clearly favours Iran. This shift didn’t come out of nowhere, as the majority of Iraqis are Shiites, while for many years, power lay with the Sunnis, but no longer.
The escalation of Iran’s conflict with Israel brings the possibility of drawing other regional countries into a chain reaction even closer.
In this scenario, Iraq is likely to find itself deeply embroiled, as armed Shiite militia groups operate within its borders, ready to obey every command from Tehran and to attack Western, mainly American, and Western targets.
Thus, a dangerous balancing act is being played out. An intentional attack or an accident could be the trigger for a regional war.
Countries like Iraq are on a knife’s edge, becoming the battleground for the rivalries, alliances, and uneasy alliances that abound in the region.
