What was the greatest fear when Hamas attacked Israel last year on 7th October has become a reality.
Seven months on, the conflict isn’t just between Israel and Hamas anymore; it has escalated into a confrontation with regional dimensions, with a direct clash between Israel and Iran.
The Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1st April opened Pandora’s box, and now the worst-case scenario is plausible.
The fire ignited not only burns in the Gaza Strip but has reignited fronts that have been smouldering for a while and threaten to merge into a large-scale war from which no side will emerge unscathed.
Avoiding further escalation is also what Iran seeks, as its “response” to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus has been completed.
It has indicated that it will retaliate only if subjected to a new attack.
Thus, the ball is largely in Israel’s court.
In recent hours, the American President has been desperately trying to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu and his government not to retaliate further and to settle for the victory they claim to have achieved.
Joe Biden seeks de-escalation, partly knowing full well that otherwise the consequences could be devastating, and partly because the last thing he wants in an election year is a war in the Middle East.
Therefore, it is absolutely essential for American leadership to ensure that its most significant geopolitical ally in the region doesn’t throw everything into chaos.
However, until now, American demands regarding the Gaza Strip are rarely accepted by the Israeli side.
Benjamin Netanyahu is playing his cards closely, primarily following the advice of his more extreme government allies. So, will American intervention now, when the existential threat to the Israelis is real, make a difference?
The Israeli leadership seems to believe that this is the right opportunity for a massive strike against Iran, which will send a strong message to the regime and destroy a significant portion of the country’s military infrastructure.
This pursuit is not new and relates to Israel’s longstanding position that Iran must cease to be a regional power.
Acting recklessly, Israel might want to seize the opportunity to teach its adversary a lesson. This is a scenario that must be avoided.
