The amount of rainfall that recently hit the United Arab Emirates was enormous; however, such phenomena are not uncommon in the Gulf region, stated Associate Professor at the Research Centre for Climate and Atmospheric Research (CARE-C) of the Cyprus Institute, Panos Hadjinicolaou.
Regarding Cyprus, he noted a trend towards decreased precipitation in the coming decades based on studies, but did not rule out a slight increase in extreme rainfall.
“It’s not certain that the floods in Dubai are due to climate change,” said Hadjinicolaou. He explained that in this Middle Eastern region, although there is very little rainfall throughout the year, only a few intense rainfall episodes may occur.
The amount of recent rainfall was enormous, over 200 millimetres within 24 hours, he continued, but “we have cases of flooding on the coasts of Saudi Arabia, such as in Jeddah on the western side of the Arabian Peninsula, where every year it is affected by intense rainfall due to a low-pressure system from the Red Sea.”
So, Hadjinicolaou continued, in this region, very intense rainfall is not uncommon, but it does not significantly contribute to the total annual rainfall because it occurs very infrequently.
He also noted, “It’s difficult to correlate each episode with climate change, although we do know that with increasing global temperatures, we expect an increase in atmospheric humidity.”
There is also a simple numerical rule that states that for every one degree increase in air temperature, atmospheric humidity increases by 7%, he added.
Therefore, generally speaking, with increasing global and atmospheric temperatures, increased humidity is expected, which is one of the factors contributing to cloud formation and rainfall on a global scale.
“However, it’s difficult to identify each specific extreme rainfall event with anthropogenic climate change. Although recently some statistical methods are being developed to correlate extreme events. Perhaps a study in the near future will shed light on what happened in Dubai,” he concluded.
What to expect in Cyprus due to climate change
Hadjinicolaou said that Cyprus, as part of the Eastern Mediterranean, is already experiencing increased warming levels that are above the global average.
He pointed out that the rate at which the atmosphere has warmed over the last approximately 40 years is twice the global warming rate. This is also accompanied by decreased rainfall, he said.
“The regional climate models applied by the Cyprus Institute and us at the Centre of Excellence for Climate and Atmosphere do not provide clear messages from their predictions, and the prediction of rainfall evolution in the coming decades is relatively uncertain due to the difficulties and uncertainties in cloud modelling and rainfall production. However, from studies we have conducted, we see a trend that rainfall will further decrease in the coming decades and there is a slight indication that, despite reduced rainfall, there may be a slight increase in extreme rainfall,” he added.
Hadjinicolaou said that Cyprus’ initiative for coordinating regional countries on climate change was an effort that began a few years ago.
“The Cyprus Institute led and coordinated the scientific part, bringing together scientists from all neighbouring countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, as well as experts from outside the region. We reached some conclusions about the challenges faced by the region, part of which is Cyprus, about the gaps in knowledge that exist, and about what could be done to address these knowledge gaps and create collaborations and actions to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change,” he noted.
Two years ago in Egypt, he continued, during one of the climate change conferences, the first declaration of cooperation was signed. “From there onwards, the next steps are expected at a political level,” he concluded.
