After a period of tensions that reached a red level, the tone has recently been lowered. Greece and Turkey have sought to improve relations and at one level have succeeded.
There have been far fewer violations of Greek airspace, provocative statements have almost disappeared, and exploration and drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean has been frozen.
The important things will be “unlocked” after the Turkish president visits Athens today. Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Kyriakos Mitsotakis and there it will become clear what the intentions of the two countries are.
The indications, however, are not encouraging. The fact that tensions have decreased is positive, but this may be due to the fact that the agenda does not include issues on which the two countries do not have deep differences. Neither Athens nor Ankara have ever “taken them out of the drawer”, knowing that any discussion of them could blow the good climate out of the water.
In essence, there is no indication that the Turkish geostrategic agenda has changed or that the country’s aspirations have changed in the slightest – the Aegean continental shelf issue, the demilitarization of Greek islands, the Libya (GNA)–Turkey maritime deal. Everything remains there. Despite the low tones, Turkey has not only not abandoned its positions, but always adds something new to its basket of claims.
This does not mean that Greece should say no to dialogue. After all, that would give the other side a lot of leverage, and furthermore, no one denies that dialogue is the means of resolving disputes. But while rolling out the red carpet for Tayyip Erdogan, it must keep its expectations low. It should present its positions, listen to what the Turkish side has to say, and not cultivate high expectations of what might happen next.
Whether there is room for progress in relations between the two countries and whether a path will be opened through which they can succeed in avoiding tensions to resolve their differences will soon be seen. Most likely, the momentum of the Greek-Turkish dialogue will soon deflate, as Turkey has given no indication that it is willing to curb its extreme aspirations. Behind the smoothing of its harsh rhetoric, Ankara has not stopped articulating that it wants it all to itself. It is difficult for this to change.
