Malta and Cyprus will have the lowest death toll among European countries during the ‘first wave’ of the Covid-19 pandemic with 19 and 54 deaths respectively until August 4 (assuming full social distancing through May 2020), according to a recent study by Seattle’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
The analysis is based on data sourced from national and local governments and the WHO, and factored in parameters such as policies enforced by countries on social distancing as well as the strength of each country’s healthcare system.
The Republic of Cyprus counts nine deaths so far from Covid-19 and on Wednesday the government announced the extension until April 30 of sweeping measures to contain the virus.
The IHME study also includes information on government-issued measures taken, like dates on which lockdown was enforced and schools closed.
The survey predicts that in Europe the country with the most deaths will be by far the UK, although the Guardian reports that Imperial College scientists advising the UK government warned that the modelling of the IHME UK data is problematic.
Imperial College predicts that the total deaths in the UK will range between 7,000 and 20,000. Currently the UK counts more than 7,000 dead from the virus.
IHME predicts that more than 60,000 will die in the UK from Covid-19 by August 4. Italy comes second with 20,300 followed by Spain with 19,209.