Maria Angela Holguín Cuéllar has delved deeply into the depths of the Cypriot issue. And during her third trip to Cyprus next week, it is indicated – at least by those hopeful for some movement on the Cyprus issue – that it will be decisive.
Diplomatic circles in Nicosia note that the visits of the personal envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations have contributed “to understanding exactly where she has become involved” and that substantive moves need to be made for something substantial to be achieved.
From Holguín’s discussions in Germany and France, as well as at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels, it appears from the perspective of the envoy of the international organization that the key to any forward steps lies in Ankara.
What Nicosia pointed out in the previous period that mobility depends primarily on the attitude of the Turkish government now seems not just to have been a vague statement by the Cypriot government but the essence of the matter.
It is not considered, by diplomatic circles, coincidental that suddenly – after talks in Berlin and Paris – she decided to travel to Ankara again.
And Holguín’s intention is to go to Ankara before coming to Cyprus on May 7th. Whether she will meet with Hakan Fidan or another official will depend on the schedule of the Turkish Foreign Minister and if he will not be abroad.
The personal envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations for Cyprus in Brussels has met with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms, Elisa Ferreira, and the head of the Directorate-General for Reforms of the Commission, Mario Nava.
Michel’s position, during his meeting with journalists in Brussels, which took place after he saw Holguín, is particularly noteworthy as it records the message received by the UN envoy during her European journey.
Michel indicated that the EU’s message “is extremely clear, it is straightforward. We had a strategic discussion two weeks ago, and I invite you to read the conclusions. Every word is extremely important. Firstly, we would like to cooperate constructively with Turkey because we have a common interest in a stable environment in the Eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, we consider that the greatest progress in this UN process concerning Cyprus is a fundamental element. When we cooperate with third countries, we take into account the whole global picture and consider all the elements that need to be taken into account, and our conclusions are clear.”
Waiting for something specific
Taking into account Holguín’s trip to Ankara, Nicosia this time expects to hear something specific from the Secretary-General’s envoy on how the effort will proceed. In short, a substantive step forward is expected, not limited to meetings with the two sides to record their positions.
It is not excluded that this specific one could be a formula for how the process will move forward. The question that arises from various directions is about the form such a formula will take.
It is clear from Nicosia’s perspective that this formula cannot in any way move in the direction of compromise.
Foreign Minister Konstantinos Kombos, speaking last Tuesday on CyBC, was clear enough about how Nicosia views the approaches that want the two sides to meet somewhere in the middle for the process to progress.
He indicated quite clearly that such an approach is counterproductive and signaled that a similar effort will not find agreement from the Greek Cypriot side.
Nicosia has made it clear both publicly and privately that it does not agree and will not accept approaches that ask the Greek Cypriot side to move from its positions – which are based on the framework set by the United Nations themselves – in order to approach the positions of the Turkish side – which are outside the framework of the international organization.
Despite the fact that President Christodoulides reacted strongly to the leakage of what he said at the National Council (on April 26th) about the proposal of the Secretary-General of the United Nations for a meeting of the two leaders in trilateral or pentagonal format, the issue will be on the agenda on May 8th when Holguín will be at the Presidential Palace.
Government Spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis, the day after the National Council, speaking on RIK, referred to the meeting of the President with Holguín on May 8th to discuss Guterres’s proposal.
What the United Nations proposed was to hold a trilateral meeting, namely between Nikos Christodoulides and Ersin Tatar together with Antonio Guterres.
Or even a 5+1 meeting (following the model of the 2021 Geneva meeting) where, beyond the two leaders, the three guarantor powers and the UN Secretary-General would be present.
Nicosia now awaits Holguín to see where this proposal stands, considering that Nikos Christodoulides positively approached the proposal while Ersin Tatar insisted on being negative.
What is expected next week with Holguín’s arrival is to initially see if the UN persists in such meetings and mainly to see how the international organization sees them being implemented in practice.
What the Greek Cypriot side seems to clearly understand is that meetings between the two leaders (regardless of format) should have a specific direction.
Even an informal meeting between Christodoulides and Tatar should have some content and not just be for photo opportunities.
From the analyses of those involved in the Cyprus issue (both government and party levels), the 2021 meeting is not overlooked, where not only did it not contribute to resolving the deadlock (after the failure of Crans Montana) but it was also used by the Turkish side to put forward the satisfaction of prerequisites – sovereign equality and equal international status – before discussing anything else.
A position that has since been insisted upon and which has led certain circles involved in the Cyprus issue to suggest seeking a middle ground to change the climate in Cyprus.
Working for failure
The Turkish Cypriot side reacted immediately to the leakage of information regarding a proposal for meetings between the UN Secretary-General and the two sides, with or without the guarantor powers.
A reaction aimed at preventing discussion of this specific proposal during Özgün’s presence here next week.
The so-called “foreign minister” of the occupying regime rushed to state that “there is no other initiative apart from the process conducted by Holguín.”
A process that, if unsuccessful, will lead to a failure, and this is the main goal of the Turkish side, which continues to work towards this direction. It’s not at all coincidental that the Turkish side insists in its statements on repeating that “Holguín’s six-month term ends on July 4th.”
Barometer for new CBMs
During her previous round of contacts in Nicosia, the UN envoy, among other things, hinted at the possibility of promoting new Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) unilaterally. As an incentive to improve the climate in Cyprus.
President Christodoulides – according to what he himself stated at the last National Council – beyond the unilateral measures decided by his government for the Turkish Cypriots, in his previous meeting with Maria Angela Holguín Cuéllar, also presented the proposals submitted by his predecessors in the past.
The intention of President Christodoulides, in the new meeting, is to provide a document with the confidence-building measures that have already been implemented.
A move aimed at responding to criticisms and allegations of non-implementation of measures announced by the Cypriot government.
Further discussions on CBMs see the Greek Cypriot side returning to the issue of opening new crossing points, based on previous proposals that have been submitted and so far have not progressed due to the refusal of the Turkish side.
Beyond all this, on the ground, the Turkish side continues violations within the buffer zone. Violations that, although not at the center of publicity, keep the United Nations and the government busy.
These moves are part of the pressures of the Turkish side to force the UN Peacekeeping Force to negotiate with the occupying regime. In this context of actions, claims about the road to Astromeritis being violated within the buffer zone are included.
